Tealeaf Stocks Prediction provides predictions for stock returns up to five years in the future. In addition, it provides the estimated accuracy of the prediction. The application assumes the user has some knowledge of finance. STOCKS COVERED IN THIS VERSIONThis free version is tailored to a Dutch audience, and covers the major market indices, most stocks in the AEX index, and a few large global companies. The full version (to be released soon) will give you full access to make predictions for most publicly listed stocks.BACKGROUND OF THE PREDICTION MODELOther than most other predictor applications, Tealeaf Stocks Prediction does not use technical analysis, but adopts an academic approach. It applies econometric techniques to estimate a macro-economic model using historical prices and the interest rate. Once the model is calibrated, a return prediction is made through extrapolation using current prices and the interest rate. The model is based on research conducted at the Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Groningen, The Netherlands.USING THE APPFirst, make sure you have internet connection. Next, select a stock and a prediction period using the upper two green spinner buttons. Finally, hit the "Predict" button at the bottom to calculate and display the prediction. The prediction will show as well as a graph with historical actual and predicted returns. Turning your device will enlarge the graph.EXPLANATION OF OUTPUT- Predicted return: This figure shows in percentage points the expected net return on investing in the stock as of today, for the selected forecast period. These figures are not annualized. A two year forecast thus will display the total net return after two years. - Accuracy of prediction (R2): This is a "measure of fit" and shows the historical (in sample) accuracy based on a linear regression of the historical actual returns on the predicted returns, in terms of R-squared. R2 basically measures the relative amount of variation in the actual returns that prediction model is able to explain.- Graph: The graph shows both actual historical net returns (red line) and predicted returns (green line) in percentage points. Please take note that the lines indicate net returns and not price levels. Along the horizontal axis the starting date of the investment is indicated, along the vertical axis the return is indicated. The level of the red/green line then indicates what the actual/predicted return is after a period equal to the forecast period. Hence, if one selects a forecast period of a year, the red line will be truncated exactly one year ago, since it is not known yet what the actual yearly net return is for later dates. The green line extends the red line, as this naturally is the prediction for the future return.
VERSION HISTORY
- Version Tealeaf posted on 2013-03-13
Several fixes and updates - Version Tealeaf posted on 2013-03-13
Program Details
- Category: Business > Other
- Publisher: Tealeaf Stocks Prediction
- License: Free
- Price: N/A
- Version: Array
- Platform: android